Light posting here

All the action's over at Participant-Observer.

Obama's and McCain's tax plans

Here's a nice, nonpartisan analysis of Obama's and McCains tax plans from the Urban Institute and Brookings. The summary:

Both John McCain and Barack Obama have proposed tax plans that would substantially increase the national debt over the next ten years, according to a newly updated analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. Compared to current law, TPC estimates the Obama plan would cut taxes by $2.9 trillion from 2009-2018. McCain would reduce taxes by nearly $4.2 trillion. Obama would give larger tax cuts to low- and moderate-income households and pay some of the cost by raising taxes on high-income taxpayers. In contrast, McCain would cut taxes across the board and give the biggest cuts to the highest-income households.

And the money shot:If you have trouble reading that, it just means that the wealthier you are, the better you'll do under McCain's plan. The poorer you are, the better you'll do under Obama's. It's pretty crystal clear, and quite consistent with how the parties have governed over the past half century.

McCain's coming for our water?

This story seems to have legs, at least in Colorado:

Did John McCain signal the end of his Republican presidential run and launch his next campaign for the U.S. Senate in a phone interview with The Pueblo Chieftain last week?

During the interview on Thursday, McCain called for a renegotiation of the Colorado River Compact. Colorado has nine Electoral College votes, and McCain’s statements could have pushed Colorado voters one more step away from him in the presidential election. At the very least the senator from Arizona provided a wedge issue for the Obama campaign to exploit here and across the southwestern United States.

Just to be clear, not everyone in Colorado pays attention to water issues, but those who do really, really care about it. And it could affect their votes, regardless of party affiliation. If you live in Colorado (where the Colorado River, you know, comes from) and you hear this talk from a dude from Arizona (where they draw from the Colorado River to water their golf courses), you get jittery. Which is why state politicians of both parties, including Sen. Ken Salazar (D) and senatorial candidate Bob Schaffer (R) have publicly rebuked McCain over the comments.

Keep your eyes on these lines:

A slip?

Probably not what Pickler intended, but who knows?

His top contenders are said to include Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Less traditional choices mentioned include former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, an abortion-rights supporter, and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential prick in 2000 who now is an independent.

(h/t Atrios)

Is there an Obama strategy?

TPM picks up on an interesting recent trend in the presidential campaign:

The McCain campaign has outspent the Obama camp by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in some cases by as much as a million dollars or more, in virtually all of the nearly dozen battleground states where both campaigns are up on the air, according to a firm that tracks national advertising.

I can attest to this. I live in a battleground state, and the TV ads during the Olympics (other than the promos for that Christian Slater "Memento"-rip-off show) consist of nothing but McCain and Obama ads, and there seems to be roughly two McCain ads for every Obama one. The McCain ads are also much meaner.

This presents us with a small mystery. Why is McCain outspending Obama in the battleground states, when Obama is raising about $2 for every $1 that McCain raises? Some may dismiss this as Dukakis redux. But I don't think that's what's going on.

Part of the answer is that Obama is also spending in non-battleground states like Georgia. He may not win there, but he may force McCain to defend normally friendly territory.

Another part of the answer is that Obama's playing a form of rope-a-dope. It's still relatively early for a massive advertising blitz. The conventional wisdom is that voters really don't pay much attention to campaigns until after Labor Day. McCain is buring through cash rapidly to make Obama an unacceptable choice for voters. So far, the effect has been pretty anemic; Obama has a modest but consistent lead in national polls and in most of the swing states. The idea is that McCain will be pretty much all out of attacks and cash by October (when voters traditionally start paying attention), at which point Obama brings the hammer down with an ad blitz and a voter turnout organization like this country has never seen before.

I have no idea if this is what's going on in Obama HQ, but it seems consistent with his style during the primary season. He knows that going negative carries its own risks, and he'd rather stay away from it unless it proves absolutely necessary. And while many on the left want him to tear McCain apart, it just might not be necessary to do that, at least not yet.

McCain's Veep Pick?

Who the hell is Rob Portman? Is he related to Natalie? 'cuz she needs to be reined in.

Clone Wars

I took my son to see "Clone Wars" yesterday. It's pretty okay. The dialogue is horrid, but the story isn't bad, and there are plenty of fun battle scenes.

Chronologically, the "Clone Wars" movie seems to take place between Discs 1 and 2 of the "Clone Wars" cartoons from last year. Anakin is a full Jedi, but the war is still raging and it's unclear who will win. The new twist is that Anakin is assigned a padawan, Ashoka Tano, a perky young humanoid in a tube top who likes to refer to people by nicknames. We also get to meet Jabba's young son and his uncle, who has an effeminate Southern accent.

The computer animation is good, but somehow seems only skin deep. There are tons of light saber fights, but they just don't seem that overwhelming in this format. The battle between Darth Maul, Obi-Wan, and Qui-Gon in Episode I was one of the coolest things ever committed to film, but such battles just lose something when they're animated. Yet even the cartoon series had some moments of beauty, such as the lengthy standoff between Anakin and Asajj Ventress in the rain on Yavin IV. No such moments in the new movie.

Still, a reasonably diverting romp. And I look forward to the new TV series.