tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post3908029375841543547..comments2024-03-10T01:22:54.380-07:00Comments on Enik Rising: Campaign effects?Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-65774738532921381922008-11-06T13:37:00.000-07:002008-11-06T13:37:00.000-07:00I like your analogy, except that football game out...I like your analogy, except that football game outcomes are determined almost entirely by the skills and strategic and tactical choices of those in the game. Conversely, there's a lot that goes on outside a political campaign that affects an election's outcome. Hell, Dukakis came within 9 points of winning, and he basically didn't even campaign. If the Lions decided that negative campaigning was wrong and that they'd never tackle a Cowboy, they'd lose by a lot more than 9.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-89858272525926286692008-11-06T13:20:00.000-07:002008-11-06T13:20:00.000-07:00Yeahbut, let's say I predict that the Cowboys/Lion...Yeahbut, let's say I predict that the Cowboys/Lions game goes to the Cowboys by 18.<BR/><BR/>And then it goes to the Cowboys by 19... after a plane carrying the Lions is attacked by T-rexes flying F-14s, so they play entirely with their second string and some Elvis impersonators.<BR/><BR/>I would argue that my prediction, though it turned out correct, was really not spot-on.<BR/><BR/>But yeah, we can't know how things would have turned out if the markets hadn't tanked yet. Thank God.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-40912962075129285752008-11-06T10:08:00.000-07:002008-11-06T10:08:00.000-07:00Yeah, that's one way of looking at it. Another is...Yeah, that's one way of looking at it. Another is that the models were right <I>despite</I> the ginormous exogenous shock. We can't really know what would have happened in the election had their been no financial meltdown, but I'm guessing the outcome wouldn't have been enormously different. Maybe a few points in McCain's direction, but still an Obama win. All of which suggests that things like party affiliation really still matter.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-31897949931594632432008-11-06T09:43:00.000-07:002008-11-06T09:43:00.000-07:00I don't think this election is a great success for...I don't think this election is a great success for forecasters. While many of them ended up on the mark, they only did so after a huge, ginormous, monstrous exogenous event intervened: the record-breaking collapse of interbank lending, the crushing losses in the stock markets, and the consequent intervention.<BR/><BR/>If the economy had not had its sudden, steep tanking until December, then at the very least McCain would have done much better and perhaps even won. And, more to the point, nobody's model included a variable for "Did the economy go completely in the crapper?"<BR/><BR/>Put differently, it took a huge exogenous shock to bring this election into the zone predicted by models that had no such shocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-55888147155431594372008-11-06T08:50:00.000-07:002008-11-06T08:50:00.000-07:00A scientist who studies socials? Like, ice cream?...A scientist who studies socials? Like, ice cream?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-24636405514467842102008-11-06T06:13:00.000-07:002008-11-06T06:13:00.000-07:00A social scientist. Cut me some slack.A social scientist. Cut me some slack.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-46874477488790652022008-11-05T22:13:00.000-07:002008-11-05T22:13:00.000-07:00Off by .8%? And you call yourself a scientist.Off by .8%? And you call yourself a scientist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com