tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post6736571516013677071..comments2024-03-27T19:01:21.504-06:00Comments on Enik Rising: Romney, McCain, and the long slog to 1,144Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-51737374701762023222012-05-30T06:36:08.087-06:002012-05-30T06:36:08.087-06:00And, as promised... the final update of my versio...And, as promised... the final update of my version of the McCain 2008 vs Romney 2012 chart:<br /><br />http://www.abulsme.com/2012/05/30/2012-republican-delegate-count-texas-pushes-romney-over-the-top/Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-74241372826141827772012-04-25T16:47:42.222-06:002012-04-25T16:47:42.222-06:00Most recent update:
http://www.abulsme.com/2012/0...Most recent update:<br /><br />http://www.abulsme.com/2012/04/25/2008-vs-2012-after-nypactride/<br /><br />The small gap Romney had compared to McCain has now been closed. :-)<br /><br />I probably won't update this chart again until Romney clinches. :-)Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-62099344620421497952012-04-04T08:49:59.576-06:002012-04-04T08:49:59.576-06:00Update after DC/MD/WI:
http://www.abulsme.com/201...Update after DC/MD/WI:<br /><br />http://www.abulsme.com/2012/04/04/2008-vs-2012-after-dcmdwi/<br /><br />Current stats:<br /><br />50.4% of delegates allocated, Romney has 29.0% of total delegates.<br /><br />2008 status immediately after Super Tuesday:<br /><br />52.1% of delegates allocated, McCain with 30.0% of total delegates.<br /><br />Romney 2012 is still pretty closely tracking McCain 2008. A /little/ bit behind the 2008 pace, but really not very much.<br /><br />The difference in perception is all about the stretched out calendar.Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-5468737748688983862012-03-25T16:23:57.555-06:002012-03-25T16:23:57.555-06:00Just updated my own version of this chart to inclu...Just updated my own version of this chart to include Illinois and Louisiana. Romney 2012 still not that far behind McCain 2008. :-)<br /><br />http://www.abulsme.com/2012/03/25/2008-vs-2012-after-louisiana/Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-86681927823539578552012-03-21T18:38:55.689-06:002012-03-21T18:38:55.689-06:00Andrew, Josh Tucker makes a compelling case that G...Andrew, <a href="" rel="nofollow">Josh Tucker</a> makes a compelling case that Gingrich dropping out would help Romney more than Santorum, assuming Santorum's strategy has shifted from "win the majority of delegates" to "deny Romney the majority of delegates." Yes, more of Gingrich's votes would go to Santorum, but some (1 in 5? 1 in 3?) would go to Romney, allowing him to increase his delegate-gathering rate. In some states, Gingrich dropping would help put Romney over the 50% mark, allowing him to take all the delegates rather than a proportion of them.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-21617352492635578842012-03-21T17:46:54.539-06:002012-03-21T17:46:54.539-06:00Gingrich is a factor. But, the key point about Gi...Gingrich is a factor. But, the key point about Gingrich is that he is weakening Santorum by splitting the conservative vote. The number of states where the Gingrich + Santorum vote has safely exceeded the Romney vote is great. If Gingrich drops out, Santorum is strengthened and Romney's odds of avoiding a brokered convention fall, rather than rise.<br /><br />Since even Gingrich and his backers (if they aren't really just Romney backers engaged in dirty tricks) could eventually concede that his campaign is futile and materially change the end game of the primary race.Andrew Oh-Willekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537151821869153861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-83552361581982070412012-03-20T20:25:32.486-06:002012-03-20T20:25:32.486-06:00I know, too long already, but thought of one other...I know, too long already, but thought of one other factor. My chart is wider than they are tall, where yours is taller than it is wide. This means the same vertical difference on both charts will look larger on your chart.<br /><br />Between these three things, the difference in perception of the two charts is fully explained, even though the underlying data is essentially the same.<br /><br />Anyway... Illinois. :-)Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-8802427181081004062012-03-20T13:43:52.989-06:002012-03-20T13:43:52.989-06:00The place where that "kink" happened and...The place where that "kink" happened and McCain started accelerating happened immediately post Super Tuesday. In 2008 once all the Super Tuesday results were in, the delegates awarded so far percentage was at just about 52%. This is about where we will be this time around right after Louisiana on Saturday.<br /><br />So if we both redraw our graphs when we add the data points for Illinois and for Louisiana, we should see our data points for the 52% mark line up much more closely with each other again, and we'll be looking at a comparison with data points close to the same percentages again (as opposed to Romney currently being in the "Super Tuesday gap" when compared to 2008).<br /><br />At that point I think we'll have a clear picture of how far behind McCain's pace Romney really is at the moment. Right now the big 2008 Super Tuesday gap makes the comparison very dependent on small details of the analysis.<br /><br />After Louisiana we'll be able to compare 2012 at 52%, with 2008 at 52% and have a real apples to apples comparison.<br /><br />So what would it take for Romney to catch up with where McCain was at the 52% mark? Lets do that math really quickly... To catch up Romney would need to hit the 30% of total delegates mark... or 686 delegates. That is a gain of 171 delegates. There are only 115 delegates between Illinois and Louisiana, and not all of them will be determined this week, and Romney won't be getting 100% of them anyway, so that clearly isn't happening.<br /><br />Romney will be behind McCain's pace no matter what, the only question will be by how much. My charts will start to show Romney falling behind McCain too at that point. <br /><br />(And more relevantly for this time around, is he able to get enough to be on pace for 1144, or do we get brokered convention talk getting louder and louder in volume....)<br /><br />Anyway, mystery solved. I think. :-)Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-59976024763671897962012-03-20T13:43:16.258-06:002012-03-20T13:43:16.258-06:00Thanks for taking a look Seth. Lets try to figure...Thanks for taking a look Seth. Lets try to figure out why the two charts look different.<br /><br />The source counts are different of course, but not by much, at least for 2012. RCP has Romney at 516 delegates right now (22.6% with 42.0% determined), Green Papers has him at 515 (22.5% with 43.3% determined). So Green Papers actually has the Romney 2012 line LOWER than you would get with RCP, but they are pretty close.<br /><br />It must be the 2008 numbers that differ between the sources then. RCP's line must be much higher than the line I got from tracking CNN in 2008.<br /><br />Looks like on the 2008 line you have a data point at about (60%,37%). My data taken daily from CNN back in 2008 had 60% being hit on February 20th. At that point the count was McCain 918 out of the 2380 delegates, or 38%. So... almost the same place you have your data point. It looks like our data points around the 50% mark in 2008 line up pretty well too.<br /><br />Hmmm... <br /><br />Ah! I know now. I have a few additional data points that come from the days right after super Tuesday since those results came in over the course of a few days and I took snapshots of the count every day, rather than just having the final results as if they were immediately known on Super Tuesday. I have additional data points other places as well due to more intermediate results.<br /><br />So I have more data points right around the percentage we are at right now, whereas on your chart right now Romney is in the gap caused by Super Tuesday and the next data point for McCain is the one with complete 2008 results. And it looks like those initial delegate results I have filling in that gap were slightly less favorable to McCain than the results that came in more slowly over the next couple of days. (My spreadsheet is linked on my wiki, feel free to look through the details.)<br /><br />Then the rest of your data points are AFTER Super Tuesday. But of course after Super Tuesday McCain started accelerating because he was the presumptive nominee and so started collecting delegates faster at that point. Both your linear trend line and what the eye is drawn to for the data points, picks up on that accelerated post-Super Tuesday velocity and thus pulls the trend line to a higher slope.<br /><br />Between these two things (my additional data points for partial super Tuesday results and McCain acceleration after passing the 52% mark) I think we completely explain the difference between the two charts.Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-53805880837755854632012-03-20T08:58:23.938-06:002012-03-20T08:58:23.938-06:00Thanks for noticing my error! I've added a new...Thanks for noticing my error! I've added a new chart above, although it looks virtually identical to my previous one. I assume the big difference comes from the different methods of determining delegate shares.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-66572393463670998862012-03-20T04:03:37.702-06:002012-03-20T04:03:37.702-06:00The total number of delegates was different in 200...The total number of delegates was different in 2008 and 2012, so to really compare the years, you need to look at the % of delegates rather than the absolute numbers... I took a crack at a version of this chart doing that and it looks a bit different. Take a look: http://www.abulsme.com/2012/03/20/yet-more-2008-vs-2012-comparisons/<br /><br />(I also used different sources for delegate counts, which most likely also makes a difference.)Samuel Minterhttp://www.abulsme.com/noreply@blogger.com