tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post8860184801322784803..comments2024-03-27T19:01:21.504-06:00Comments on Enik Rising: Even more on NH pollsSeth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3412583847145043520.post-64008812361105096192008-01-14T11:33:00.000-07:002008-01-14T11:33:00.000-07:00I have a few suggestions:I wonder if there was a d...I have a few suggestions:<BR/><BR/>I wonder if there was a difference in participation rates among supporters of the candidates. Perhaps the mischaracterization of Clinton's "moment" motivated her supporters to participate at higher rates than general. (You can see I don't know anything about the caucuses -- do they really get together in groups to vote?)<BR/><BR/>This goes hand in hand with the selection-effect problem that goes with the underrepresentation of the poor and less-educated democrats in polls.<BR/><BR/>Also, this "decided on the last day" question. Does it miss those people who made up their mind after the debate (as well as after the news polls were done) but before the last day (i.e. the day before the last day)? I don't know the wording of the exit polls, or the exact timing of the pre-caucus polls.<BR/><BR/>It does seem that every problem had to err away from counting Clinton supporters in order to get such a large discrepancy from the polls predictions.<BR/><BR/>Odd. Perhaps people lie about supporting Clinton? They don't want to be seen as supporting her, but they've been won over. ;)AnnMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08504450005600933157noreply@blogger.com