Enik Rising

Nate Silver notices that the change in non-farm payrolls in an election year does a pretty good job predicting presidential elections. I...

If you thought the debate over election forecast models was over, you thought wrong. Sean Trende has pushed back against my pushback . Well...

Nate Silver's 2012 prediction model has produced some interesting responses across the blogosphere. Brendan Nyhan notes that Silver...

The 2012 presidential election forecaster up at fivethirtyeight.org is great fun, and you could get lost in the numbers for a few hours the...

When I'm asked whether I expect President Obama to get reelected, I often look around to see if there's an economist nearby to tell ...

John Sides looks at recent economic growth numbers and polling trends and concludes that "Barack Obama is on the cusp of becoming the ...

Carlisle Rainey , a poli sci and statistics graduate student at Florida State, has written a response to my earlier post in which I argued...

I wanted to elaborate a bit on my reaction to Nate Silver's recent post  on the limits of economic forecasts of elections. Silver's ...

Binyamin Appelbaum , in today's New York Times : No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office ...