I've been struck by the ongoing disparity between national polls and the polls from the early primary states with regards to the Republican presidential nomination. Just judging from the
national polls, this contest looks like a walk for Giuliani. Early state contests like
Iowa and
New Hampshire however, have been leaning in Romney's favor for some time, which is why Giuliani may pull out of the first three primaries and caucuses and hope for a great Super Tuesday.
One of the CKNZ Posse sent me
this link, which shows how members of Congress have endorsed in the presidential race so far. Elite endorsements, by the way, are considered a much better indicator of how a nomination will go than polls or money are. The MC endorsements aren't a perfect measure of all elite endorsements - candidates who are fellow members of Congress (notably John McCain) are doing disproportionately well here - but you still get a sense of what's going on.
Here's a chart comparing how the candidates are doing on average nationally, in New Hampshire, and among members of Congress (as measured by the percent of Republican MCs who have made an endorsement). Polling averages come from Pollster.com.
It's interesting how the New Hampshire primary voters seem closer to the endorsements than to the national polls, particularly in the case of Romney and Giuliani. If Romney gets the nomination, it will probably be treated by the media as a come-from-behind Cinderella story, but those who knew which surveys to look at could have seen it coming for months.
The turkey was a success. The temperature in my backyard never dropped below about 25˚F, which was warm enough to keep the brine from freezing. So my turkey miraculously managed to stay below freezing all night long without freezing. It's like living in the future, baby.
No room in the fridge - the turkey's got to brine outdoors tonight. So 1.36 kg (approx. 23 moles) of salt mixed with 9 kg of water should bring that solution's boiling point down by about 9.5 degrees Celsius, if I've done my calculations right. That translates to roughly 15 F. The forecast for tonight is 12 F. So I'm pushing it. Hopefully, it's warm enough right next to my house to keep the brine from freezing over. We'll see.
It's interesting how the New Hampshire primary voters seem closer to the endorsements than to the national polls, particularly in the case of Romney and Giuliani. If Romney gets the nomination, it will probably be treated by the media as a come-from-behind Cinderella story, but those who knew which surveys to look at could have seen it coming for months.
Wired has put together a little photo essay of the ten cheesiest Star Trek villains from the original series. Great stuff in here.
