Friday, February 1, 2008

Super Tuesday polls has provided some very helpful graphics for those of us wondering what will happen next Tuesday. Here's the Democratic one:(The red line is the median. Circles represent individual polls. The darker they are, the more recently they were conducted. The bigger they are, the more delegates are at stake. BTW: This is a really nice way to display a lot of variables in one chart.)

Note that Clinton is pretty heavily favored in most of the states, although the more recent polls almost all show movement towards Obama. It looks like California will be a wash, although Hillary will pick up the bulk of delegates in the delegate-rich states of NY and NJ, while Obama will clean up in IL.

The Republican one is more surprising:Can McCain really have such substantial leads in all these states? Most of them, I think, are winner-take-all, unlike on the Democratic side. So McCain seems poised for a really good night. Granted, Huckabee is still an X-factor out there, although I'm guessing he's pulling more from Romney than McCain at this point.

USA Today has an interesting little study showing that no candidate can clinch next Tuesday. The beat goes on...

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