Thursday, March 6, 2008

Polling porn

SurveyUSA has put together state-by-state matchups of Clinton vs. McCain and Obama vs. McCain, which were written up over at TPM. You can (and should) quibble with particular states, but the basic message is that we've got us a ballgame here. In these matchups, both the Democrats beat McCain by narrow margins in the Electoral College.

To the left is Obama v. McCain, which Obama wins 280-258. Note how Obama takes a chunk of the mountain West, including Colorado. And he takes Virginia. That's plausible. But I'll put on a dress and curtsy if Obama beats McCain in North Dakota.






Now here's Clinton v. McCain. I don't get how she loses NH and MI but wins in FL, although I guess it's conceivable. At any rate, she beats McCain nationally 276-262. And is the Pacific Northwest so fragile that Obama can take it while Clinton can't?






Anyway, the obvious message for Democrats here is that either of their candidates can win (in very different ways), but that it won't be a walk in the park for either of them.

Update: I'd missed this one, which Matt Yglesias caught. No way does McCain take New Jersey from Obama.

2 comments:

APP said...

I'm guessing whomever the Democratic nominee, the 2008 map will look very similar to 2000 and 2004.

Enik said...

Seems like the smart bet. It's possible a few states will be in play that weren't in previous elections, like VA or AR. It would be nice to see candidates spending some time in places other than PA, OH, and FL, but I'm not holding my breath.