Doesn't this violate everything we've heard so far about the likely makeup of the 2010 electorate and the enthusiasm gap? Well, to the extent this trend holds up, it suggests an interesting divergence in party strategies. Republicans seem to be focusing on winning the air war, while Democrats are apparently pushing mobilization. I say this extremely tentatively, but this may just be one of those situations where everyone thinks the Obama folks are losing because they're not winning the daily skirmishes, but they're actually husbanding their resources for when it actually counts.
The growth in early voting is really an interesting and under-developed area for campaign scholars. Researchers have noted, for example, that when someone of the president's stature comes to