- Larry Bartels finds that voters consider the economy a president inherited when evaluating presidential economic performance. Models accounting for the 2009 economy predict a strong Obama victory next year; models ignoring 2009 predict he'll lose.
- Steve Smith shows that congressional Democrats are no less unified than congressional Republicans.
- Nick Confessore argues for an expanded party model. Not really new for political scientists, but good for the NYT.
- Mann and Ornstein: "True Independents and swing voters aren’t best captured through clever centrist political positioning. They have almost no ideological frameworks with which to judge the candidates and parties; they are quintessentially referendum voters, with low levels of information and focusing almost exclusively on performance."
- Jon Bernstein suggests a fairly plausible political nightmare scenario for next year.
- Dave Weigel: "Prediction: Cain wins Iowa caucuses. Gets up to give speech. Says: 'The Aristocrats!' Walks offstage, having told best joke ever."
- A bleak chart.
- Via Steve Greene, evidence that oenophiles have no idea what they're talking about. (But I'm sure my dad would have gotten it right.)
- Speaking of my dad, an ophthalmology poster we co-authored won a third-place prize in Vienna.
- My university considers me a "person to watch." In a good way, I hope.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Posted by Seth Masket at 11/02/2011 09:37:00 PM