What happens to the electorate when you tighten up rules for voting? Does everyone have a harder time voting, or are some groups of voters affected more than others?
We got some evidence on this question in Colorado recently. For several election cycles, Colorado has provided mail-in ballots automatically to those who have registered as requesting mail-in ballots in previous cycles. In late 2011, Secretary of State Scott Gessler announced that the state's mail-in ballots would henceforth only be sent out automatically to those who were "active" voters, meaning they had voted in the last general election. This led to a dispute between Gessler's office and the counties of Denver and Pueblo, with the Brennan Center and Colorado Common Cause getting involved. I was brought in as an expert witness to help determine the effect that the change would have on the electorate, specifically with regards to race.
With the help of University of Denver geographer Paul Sutton, I compared voting precincts in Denver, Pueblo, and throughout the state based on their racial breakdowns and on the percent of voters listed as IFTV ("Inactive - failed to vote," meaning they did not vote in the last general election). Below is a scatterplot showing the percent of residents who are Latino compared to the percent who are IFTV status, by precinct within Denver:
That's a very strong relationship, suggesting that the rule change would have a disproportionate impact on Latinos, making it less likely that they'll receive a mail-in ballot. Basically the same trend was found among African American residents:
I found these same patterns within Pueblo County and across the state as a whole.
Sutton then made these maps for Denver County, showing roughly the same trends geographically (click to expand):
Again, the trend is quite consistent: the higher concentration of a racial minority group within a precinct, the more people in that precinct who did not vote in the previous general election, and the more people who would be deprived of an automatic mail-in ballot.
Now, there is an ecological inference issue here: I'm making individual-level interpretations using precinct-level data. To try to get around this, I employed the ecological inference program Eco to make some approximations of the individual-level behavior. The results estimated that roughly 10 percent of eligible white voters were IFTV status, but roughly a third of Latinos and African Americans were IFTV status. The change in the rule on mail-in ballots would have meant racial minorities having a harder time voting by mail than whites.
Based partially on this analysis, the judge in the case ruled against Gessler, and the change in mail-in voter policy is not being implemented. But given partisan voting patterns among different racial groups, it's not hard to imagine how this would have played out electorally had it been enforced.
(Cross-posted from Mischiefs of Faction)
41 comments:
شركة مكافحة حشرات بخميس مشيطتستخدم ماكينات حديثة ومطورة ومستوردة من الخارج وذلك حتى تلاؤم جميع أنواع عمليات الرش والتي تعمل علي إبادة الحشرات وذلك حتى يتم عملية الرش بنجاح كما أن الشركة متخصصة في رش المبيدات علي مستوي المملكة وبأفضل معاير المكافحة العالية
كما أن الشركة شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة مكافحه حشرات بحائل تعمل دائما لتقديم ما هو أفضل للعميل والسعي الدائم وراء التقدم والوصول إلي أحدث الأساليب والمعدات والمبيدات الحشرية حتى تقوم بأفضل النتائج بدون وجود أي أثار جانبية كما جميعا نعلم ما هي الحشرات ومدي ضررها ووجودها فجميعنا نعلم أن الحشرات مختلفة الأنواع من الطائر شركة تنظيف بالظائف ومنها الزاحف وهما ما يشملوا النمل والصراصير وبق الفراش والسحالي والبراصي والعناكب الضارة وغيرها بالكثير من الحشرات المختلفة التي تتواجد في بعض المنازل شركة مكافحة الربيه بجازان تنتشر في الكثير من الأماكن وتعتبر من الحشرات الشائعة لذلك تعمل شركة مكافحة حشرات بنجران علي الاهتمام بهذا الموضوع من كل الجوانب وذلك للتخلص بشكل سليم وبدقة من جميع الحشرات دون أي أضرار أو أي من المشاكل نبين لكم مثال من الحشرات وكيفية التخلص من الفئران وهي الطريقة التي توضحها شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة نقل اثاث بالطائف
buying posters online it's a good thing if you need an original picture but don't have the time to deal with it on your own. When you order a PDF poster at PrimeEssays.com, be sure that you will get an original picture containing relevant information regarding your topic.
Excellent post! I must thank you for this informative read. I really enjoyed reading it,c you’re a great author.Please visit here @ Packers And Movers Gurgaon
Packers And Movers Gurgaon to Delhi
Packers And Movers Gurgaon to Kolkata
Packers And Movers Gurgaon to Chennai
Packers And Movers Gurgaon to Pune
You can start the channel and get the channel activation code to enter on YouTube Activate website. Once you accomplish this process, then you are ready to watch YouTube videos on your Device.
Nice Blog. Thanks for sharing with us. Such amazing information.
How to Use of Instagram - Nurturing Dreams Into Reality!
MyBlogger Club
Guest Posting Site
Best Guest Blogging Site
Guest Blogger
Guest Blogging Site
Nice Blog. Thanks for sharing with us. Such amazing information.
Ideas to optimize your website Homepage for SEO
It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here!
I blog often and I truly appreciate your content.
I like the helpful information you provide in your articles.
Hello, I found your blog through Google.
Continue to keep up the very good operate.
I was very pleased to find this web-site.
I wanted to thanks for your time for this wonderful read.
I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you blog post.
That was an excellent article. You made some great points and I am grateful for for your information! Take care!
I think this article has a lot of information needed, looking forward to your new posts.
I'm looking for a good blog site.I found you and your blog site. I was looking for a search engine.
I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of this website. I also love the blog
Your data was very informative and helpful for us. Keep writing like this!
I really enjoyed reading this articles. Very good message you've done. Thanks
Great article has truly peaked my interest. thank you for this making great stories
I should say its awesome post! This Blog is so wonderful. continue writing
مؤسسة الخير لخدمات العزل بالرياض شركة عزل اسطح بالرياض
شركة امان من افضل شركات مكافحة الحشرات والقضاء عليها لتنعم ببيئة نظيفة وخالية من اي حشرات شركة مكافحة الرمة
مع شركة كلين بيور ستجد افضل خدمة لتنظيف الكنب وتعقيمها شركة تنظيف كنب
ايراج كلين لتوفير خدمات تنظيف شاملة بدبي شركة تنظيف فلل في دبي
اذا كنت تبحث عن خدمة لتنظيف مكيفات بالرياض ف شركة حور كلين هي الخيال الامثل لك شركة تنظيف مكيفات بالرياض
صقور الجزيرة هي شركة متميزة و رائدة في مجال تسليك المجاري والصرف شفط مجاري بالدمام
مع شركة صقور الجزيرة ستجد افضل خدمات تسليك المجاري وعلاجها بأفضل التقنيات وأمهر العمالة علاج انسداد المجاري
اذا كنت تبحث عن خدمة تنظيف بالرياض فشركة حور كلين هي الخيال الامثل لك شركة تنظيف بالرياض عمالة فلبينية
مؤسسة الخير لخدمات العزل بالرياض شركة عزل مطابخ بالرياض
I am very enjoyed for this blog. Its an informative topic.
Its opportunity are so fantastic and working style so speedy.
A person appear to know therefore considerably relating to this, just like you
We have daebak event everyday!!
I learn new information from your article , you are doing a great job . Keep it up
A good blog always comes-up with new and exciting information and while reading
I am unable to read articles online very often, but I’m glad I did today.
This is very well written and your points are well-expressed.
Valuable information. Quality content is good.
Thanks for sharing with us this important Content.
Post a Comment