Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Home stretch

The Democratic race is wrapping up very quickly. The AP was floating stories this morning about Clinton quitting tonight, and then Obama picked up 15 superdelegates today, including Gov. Ritter, Sen. Salazar, and Jimmy Carter. He's now only 27 delegates short of the nomination.

How does this affect voters in the final two contests? If it looks like Hillary concession (or, at least, a suspension of her campaign) is just hours away, do they still vote? Do they switch to her in a bout of underdog sympathy? Do they go with the presumed winner?

The most recent Montana poll put Obama and Clinton at 48 and 44, respectively. ARG also has a recent South Dakota poll putting Hillary ahead of Obama 60-34 there. I guess we can use these as baselines, although I find that South Dakota one rather fishy. Let's wait and see...

UPDATE: Obama has now picked up 18.5 superdelegate votes and is now 13 delegates shy of the nomination. Tonight's the night.

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