Friday, December 2, 2011

A Newt win would be very surprising indeed

Okay, we are right in the middle of a massive Newtmentum surge, or the Newtening, or Electric Newtaloo or something. Gingrich is surging in the polls. Yes, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain all had surges, but maybe this time it's different?

Personally, I'm unconvinced. Here's why:
The above chart shows the percentages of endorsements from governors, U.S. Senators, U.S. Representatives, and former presidential candidates claimed by the current GOP candidates (courtesy of Nate Silver). As can be seen, Romney and Perry are splitting in terms of gubernatorial endorsements, but the former is walking away with all the other categories.

Remember, as The Party Decides reminds us, endorsements do a much better job predicting presidential nominations than polls do, and insider support is much more important than one bad TV interview. Now, is it possible that the universe described by The Party Decides no longer exists? Sure! Maybe Internet fundraising has changed everything, maybe the Tea Party has thrown off the equations, etc. It's hard to say in advance. But given the choice, I tend to fall in with the argument that what has governed elections in the past probably governs them today.

At any rate, this race is turning into a great test of Cohen et al.'s theory.


marc said...

Slightly off the point but it's impressive how commentators have mostly avoided jokes about the candidates names, despite us quickly reaching a critical mass of candidate name weirdness. The two front runners are Newt and Mittens, hoping to take on Barack? As planned by Reince Priebus. Is it just too easy? (Newtron! Mytth! Borack!)

Chair Manufacturers in Mumbai said...

We are known manufacturers of modern classic chair. The designs are so attractive that you will be confused among which one to buy. Our products are well appreciated by top interior designers, esteemed customers and architects. We not also supply our products to offices but also in many hospitals, schools, restaurants, auditorium and cafeterias. We also deal in the supply of lounge sofas, education benches and office tables.
Chair Manufacturers in Mumbai
Chair Supplier in Mumbai
Office Chair Supplier in Mumbai
Visitor Chair Supplier in Mumbai

packers and movers in mumbai said...

Welcome to Indian Packers and Movers in Mumbai, well-known packing and moving service provider. Indian Packers and Movers in Mumbai deal Domestic, National and International Packers Movers services at economical rate. All the procedure of packing & unpacking, loading and unloading is done by our professionals.
Packers and Movers in Mumbai
Packers and Movers in Goregaon
Packers and Movers in Malad
Packers and Movers in Kandivali
Packers and Movers in Borivali

Packers and Movers in Mumbai
Packers and Movers in Vasai Road

packers and movers in hyderabad said...

A house is made up of bricks and walls, but it becomes a home when filled with love and happiness. We’re sure you can’t wait to get there and fill your new home with lots of happy memories, we’ll show you the quickest way to do that with reliable Packers and Movers Hyderabad.
Movers and Packers in Gachibowli
Movers and Packers in Kukatpally
Movers and Packers in Chanda Nagar
Movers and Packers in Manikonda

Shalu Chaudhary said...

Gile Shikwe and Phark Padta Hai websites show authentic reviews, feedbacks, and complaints about Agarwal Packers and Movers, Mobiles, Laptops, and other top brands. If you want to read or post your review about anything, then visit Gile Shikwe and Phark Padta Hai Websites.