Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Six days from Iowa -- stuff to know

I'm teaching a class on party nominations that conveniently starts the same day as the Iowa Caucuses and ends the week of Super Tuesday. Anyone want to bet on whether the Republicans have a nominee before my class is done? Anyway, here are some important links I'll probably be using in class:
  • Josh Putnam explains the delegate allocation rules for all the Republican contests. The quick version: the GOP has made some slight nods toward proportionality, but the contests are still overwhelmingly winner-take-all.
  • Also from Putnam: the primary & caucus calendar. He's even put together a version you can download for iCal, Outlook, or Google Calendar. Total stud.
  • Matt Glassman thinks Romney is the near-certain nominee, but explains why everyone has an incentive to make the contest seem more uncertain than it really is.
  • Ron Paul seems to be cruising toward a win in Iowa, and Nate Silver thinks Paul will do better than the polls currently predict.
  • Jonathan Bernstein handicaps the current Iowa poll standings, noting the volatility and closeness of the contest. Basically, anyone other than Huntsman and Gingrich has a non-trivial chance of winning.
  • I predicted Newt's collapse a month ago, but whatever. Predicting Newt will lose is like predicting Rocky will win (episodes II through V only).


Robert said...

I'm with Matt Glassman in the sense that I think that it's all over but the shouting. After all the non-Romneys have had their days in the sun, who's the one actually peaking in Iowa as the actual election day approaches - Romney. I know that it's a caucus and he probably won't actually win, but I'm just saying for the guy who has been the frontrunner all along the stars seem to be aligning quite nicely.

metrichead said...


I will take the bet and say Romney clinches the nomination (unofficially) before your class is done.

What's at stake?

Seth said...

I'm guessing you're right -- his nomination will probably be a mathematical certainty by mid-March. But I'm not sure he'll have sufficient pledged delegates by then, or if he'll give an acceptance speech, or if all the other candidates will have dropped out.