Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Polls vs. Endorsements

I've been struck by the ongoing disparity between national polls and the polls from the early primary states with regards to the Republican presidential nomination. Just judging from the national polls, this contest looks like a walk for Giuliani. Early state contests like Iowa and New Hampshire however, have been leaning in Romney's favor for some time, which is why Giuliani may pull out of the first three primaries and caucuses and hope for a great Super Tuesday.

One of the CKNZ Posse sent me this link, which shows how members of Congress have endorsed in the presidential race so far. Elite endorsements, by the way, are considered a much better indicator of how a nomination will go than polls or money are. The MC endorsements aren't a perfect measure of all elite endorsements - candidates who are fellow members of Congress (notably John McCain) are doing disproportionately well here - but you still get a sense of what's going on.

Here's a chart comparing how the candidates are doing on average nationally, in New Hampshire, and among members of Congress (as measured by the percent of Republican MCs who have made an endorsement). Polling averages come from
It's interesting how the New Hampshire primary voters seem closer to the endorsements than to the national polls, particularly in the case of Romney and Giuliani. If Romney gets the nomination, it will probably be treated by the media as a come-from-behind Cinderella story, but those who knew which surveys to look at could have seen it coming for months.

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