Saturday, November 21, 2009

Whither Romanoff?

I've been chatting with some -- what's the right term? -- anonymous sources close to the Andrew Romanoff Senate campaign. Yes, that sounds about right. Anyway, the tone from the campaign so far appears to be one of disappointment. Romanoff has a few good endorsements and is raising money at a respectable rate, but just isn't close to being competitive with Sen. Bennet right now.

The one advantage that Romanoff still has is the support of state Democratic activists. That will undoubtedly serve him well at the precinct caucuses next March. As I understand it, the Romanoff folks are currently phoning all the regular caucus attendees to try to line up support. If both candidates compete in the caucuses, I'm pretty confident Romanoff will walk away with that win. But, as fans of Mike Miles and Bob Shaffer can tell you, a caucus win hardly guarantees you the nomination. Romanoff will still need to win in the primary to get the nomination.

In order to do that, Romanoff's best bet is to hope for very low primary turnout, since the most dedicated attendees will be his base. This could happen. Given the way the Republican Senate and gubernatorial contests are shaping up, those nominations will likely be decided long before the primary, leaving the Bennet/Romanoff contest the only contentious one. But I'd still have to call Romanoff's candidacy a longshot at this point.

No comments: