Thursday, August 25, 2011

To make a democracy, not so fast on the democratic stuff

Reporting from Libya, Marc Herman notes some interesting research by political scientists Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig on how dictatorships successfully transition to democracies:
In 2009, working with data collected since 2007, the two claimed to have found a connection that could predict a successful transition between dictatorship and democracy. It was, simply put, to have a post-Revolution legislative body in place before holding national elections to put a single leader in power. The Vaclav Havels and Nelson Mandelas of the world, it turns out, are in the minority.
This strikes me as a rich area for political scientists to make a real contribution. Kudos to Marc for talking to some of us about it.

1 comment:

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Fascinating and plausible.