Sunday, March 16, 2008

More on CO delegate poaching

Convention results are starting to trickle in from other Colorado counties. A lot of county parties aren't very good about updating their websites or even creating one in the first place, so data collection has been slow, but here's what I've got so far:So there are a number of counties in which Clinton has picked up a greater share of delegates to the state convention than her Feb. 5th caucus vote would lead one to predict. A few counties (Eagle, Clear Creek) have gone the other way, giving Obama somewhat more support. But here's the difference: most of the counties in which Clinton has been gaining delegates -- specifically Denver, Douglas, and Adams -- are very large urban counties. That means there are a lot more delegates there.

For example, Clinton's 2.1% increase in delegate share in Denver County means about 15 additional delegates for her. Obama's 4.4% increase in delegate share in Eagle County means only about 2 additional delegates for him. So this trend looks like it will help out Clinton's numbers at the state convention in May. How much? Hard to tell so far. And by how much will this affect the number of delegates to the DNC picked at the state convention? Again, hard to tell. I'm guessing one or two national delegates from Colorado that would have gone to Obama will end up going to Clinton as a result of all this. I'll know more as I collect more data. Stay tuned....


RS said...

By the time of the Colorado state convention (May 16-17), it is possible Senator Obama will be ahead ~130 pledged delegates, if not more. 175 will be left (not including a Michigan re-vote).

Presumably, at that point a 1-2 delegate swing will not matter... unless it is spun as a "momentum shift" by the Clinton campaign, and they try to move the superdelegates their way.

Fingers crossed!

Seth Masket said...

No, a 1-2 delegate swing shouldn't matter... unless this happens in all the caucus states. And who knows what the hell will happen with Florida? I'm taking nothing for granted.