Sunday, March 9, 2008

More on Hillary's organizational weaknesses

The Hillary Clinton folks were out in force at yesterday's Denver County Democratic convention, for no apparent reason. Nearly every delegate in the room had already pledged to either Clinton or Obama. There were Clinton signs everywhere, but the Obama folks didn't bother to organize much, mainly because they didn't need to. Obama won the convention vote 2-1, just about the same proportion by which he won the county's caucuses last month. The Clinton campaign could have changed that outcome by organizing prior to the caucuses, but they didn't think that was important at the time.

This is the pattern we've seen from her campaign. Blow off most states until it's too late, ceding their delegates to Obama. Then, when she realizes she needs the delegates, organize like crazy, usually long after it might make a difference, or cheat or sue.

She's not this dumb or disorganized. I can only assume Mark Penn is the genius behind all this.


Anonymous said...

Great post, and the one before it.

I think it's important because there was some talk of Obama not doing as well in the next caucus stage if Hillary organized. Maybe his people wouldn't show up, maybe some could be switched, etc. If what happens in Colorado is replicated in Nevada, Iowa, and the other multi-stage caucus states, then the preliminary delegate breakdown the media released for these states will probably hold.

One less arrow in Hillary's quiver.

Seth Masket said...

Thanks. Here's some hard data. On caucus night, Feb. 5th, 19,000 Denver Democrats voted 69% Obama, 30% Clinton, 1% uncommitted. The 684 Denver convention delegates chosen for the state convention this past weekend are 68% Obama, 32% Cinton. So essentially no change, although I guess you could say she picked up the uncommitted.