- The polls did not overestimate Obama's levels of support. Rather, they greatly underestimated Clinton's. (This would tend to negate the race effect I mentioned previously.)
- The polls predicted the GOP share of the vote pretty well, suggesting that there was nothing systematically wrong with the way polling firms conducted their surveys. For some reason, they just really screwed up the Clinton predictions.
Update: More on this topic from John Sides.
Post a Comment