Sunday, October 19, 2008

My map

Okay, I'm forcing my students to put in their Electoral College predictions early this week, so I figured I ought to pony up, as well. This map, made with the help of 270towin, is based on intense poll-watching, combined with some degree of intuition, the knowledge that elections usually tighten up in the final weeks, and random guesses. At any rate, I'm predicting Obama wins with 318 Electoral votes to McCain's 220.
I feel pretty confident about most of these states, but I remain unsure about Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Obama's numbers in Ohio have been running two to three points behind his national numbers, and I'm just not sure whether he'll pull it out, although I think he has a slightly better shot at holding Florida.


cc said...

dear enik,
that map is encouraging. but the pollster graph shows mccain coming back a little bit. could you discuss that in your next post?

Eric Rubin said...

obama's taking NC, Missouri and Ohio. Its not gonna be as close as you think Sethro. sure, sure, you study this stuff, all day - every day, but my intuition meter is going off like a metal detector at a junk yard. Obama will sniff 400 electoral votes.